Scaling Epidemic Modelling Across Africa
A €1.36 million Horizon Europe grant is enabling the South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA) to expand a long-running initiative that is reshaping how epidemic modelling is taught, applied, and sustained.
For over 16 years, the International Clinics on Infectious Disease Dynamics and Data (ICI3D) have brought together researchers from across Africa to tackle one of public health’s most complex challenges: understanding how diseases spread – and how to stop them.
Now, with new Horizon Europe funding, that work is entering a new phase. “This award reflects something we’ve been building consistently over many years,” says Dr Cari van Schalkwyk, Senior Researcher at SACEMA. “It’s about persistence – and about continuing to invest in this space over time.”
At its core, the ICI3D programme is focused on strengthening advanced epidemic modelling capacity across sub-Saharan Africa. The need is clear. As governments and health systems increasingly rely on data to guide decisions, demand for modelling expertise has grown – but opportunities for sustained, high-level training and mentorship have remained limited.
“There is increasing demand for modelling to inform policy decisions, but the capacity to do this work consistently and at scale is still developing,” says Dr van Schalkwyk. “This programme is about helping to build that capacity in a more sustained way, and ICI3D is designed to close that gap.”
Epidemiological modelling sits at the intersection of mathematics, statistics, and public health. It allows researchers to explore questions that cannot always be answered in real time: What impact could a vaccination campaign have? How might treatment coverage change disease outcomes? Which interventions will make the greatest difference when resources are constrained?
In fast-moving health crises, these are not abstract questions – they are urgent ones. Modelling provides a way to test scenarios, anticipate outcomes, and guide decision-making when time and evidence are limited. It is increasingly central to how public health responses are designed, both during outbreaks and in long-term planning.
While training programmes in modelling do exist, they are often short-term – intensive workshops that end without ongoing support or connection. One of the most significant shifts enabled by the Horizon Europe grant is the move beyond this model.
ICI3D will not only expand its clinics and training activities, but also build a structured alumni network – creating a space where participants can continue collaborating, sharing ideas, and developing their work long after the initial training ends. “The aim is to create stronger continuity between training, applied work, and long-term scientific engagement,” Dr van Schalkwyk explains.
For early-career scientists, the impact is both practical and long-term. Participants gain advanced technical skills, but also the opportunity to work alongside experienced modellers on real public health questions. Just as importantly, they build networks that extend across countries and institutions – strengthening their ability to collaborate, secure funding, and grow their careers. The programme is intentionally rooted in African institutions, helping to ensure that expertise is not only developed, but retained.
Infectious diseases move across borders – and understanding them requires a similarly connected approach. “It’s important that modelling work is not only applied in African contexts, but also shaped and led by researchers based in African institutions,” Dr van Schalkwyk notes.
ICI3D brings together researchers from multiple disciplines, including epidemiology, mathematics, statistics, and clinical science. This collaboration strengthens both the quality of modelling and its relevance to different contexts. It also shifts the role of African researchers within the global scientific landscape – from applying existing models to actively contributing to new methods and approaches.
Building on SACEMA’s long-standing work, the ICI3D programme represents a move toward more sustained, locally embedded modelling capacity. The ambition is not only to train individuals, but to strengthen systems – enabling African institutions to generate and use their own modelling evidence when it matters most. “Stronger local modelling capacity means being able to respond more quickly to emerging questions, and to generate evidence that is grounded in local realities,” adds Dr van Schalkwyk.
Over time, this could transform how public health decisions are made: faster responses to emerging threats, more context-specific insights, and stronger, self-sustaining research ecosystems across the continent.
Text: Katrine Anker-Nilssen
photo: MidJourney
News date: 2026-04-07
Links: